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OCTOBER 6,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

AFTERMATH – The Democrats are acting no better after Justice Kavanaugh's swearing-in than they did earlier.  No graciousness.  No spirit of patriotism.  Just sheer hate and resentment.  Nancy Pelosi is already pledging to destroy Kavanaugh one way or the other.  She also asserts that this is a sad day for women and girls.  I wonder how many women and girls she actually knows.  Former Attorney-General Eric Holder displayed his obsessive poor taste by declaring that the legitimacy of the Supreme Court must be restored.  I guess he decides when the Court is legitimate.  The Democratic Party of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy is truly gone, and largely forgotten.  Now we have the Democratic Party of race, gender, and ethnicity, and little else.

MORE CLASS – FROM MEDIAITE:  A pair of activist comedians followed around Fox & Friends host Brian Kilmeade, lobbing hostile questions at him on Friday. If you are a public figure, after all, you may get questions with or without a camera when you are walking down a public street (In fact, Mediaite has used a roving paparazzi in the past as well).  But they didn’t stop there.  Jason Selvig and Davram Stiefler, who are known as “The Good Liars,” then trailed Kilmeade into a NYC subway and encouraged fellow passengers to jeer at him in what increasingly felt like a potentially perilous situation for the Fox host.  It started with Selvig posing for a selfie with a smiling Kilmeade. But it was clearly a set-up, with Selvig then asking Kilmeade if he was “accused of sexually harassing Gretchen Carlson.” It turned ugly from there.  Selvig follows Kilmeade through Midtown, repeatedly calling after him, and noting that his “backpack is on crooked.”  He eventually follows Kilmeade onto the subway, when Stiefler makes an appearance, announcing the Fox News host to the crowded car.  “Hey everyone, this is Brian Kilmeade, he says lots of weird, kinda racisty stuff on the news a lot,” Stiefler says.  Activist comedians?  I can't wait to see them perform.  Lotsa laughs I'm sure.

I'M SHOCKED, SHOCKED – FROM FOX:  A lawyer who “was unable to substantiate” the domestic violence allegations against Rep. Keith Ellison is a partner of a law firm that donated more than half a million dollars to Democrats since 1998, with nearly $50,000 to the embattled Congressman running for the state’s Attorney General position.  Susan Ellingstad is a partner at Lockridge Grindal Nauen P.L.L.P law firm and was picked by Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party to investigate Karen Monahan’s allegations of domestic abuse after she came forward in August.  At the time, the party’s chairman Ken Martin said Ellingstad was hired to make sure the probe “wouldn’t be colored by people with associations with the party.”  Do you hear the silence of the "women's" groups?  Of the liberal press? Hypocrisy marches on.

October 6, 2018       Permalink

THE STORY – AT 4:44 P.M. ET:  The judge has been confirmed.  The aftermath will play out at the polls next month.  From Fox: 

The Senate voted Saturday to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, marking the end to one of the most rancorous confirmation fights in modern times and securing a rightward shift on the nation’s highest court.

The chamber voted 50-48 to confirm Kavanaugh, mostly along party lines, after a weeklong FBI probe helped settle concerns among most wavering senators about the sexual assault allegations that nearly derailed his nomination and led to a dramatic second hearing. Saturday’s roll call marked the tightest successful Supreme Court confirmation vote in over 100 years, closer than even that of Clarence Thomas who similarly faced sexual misconduct allegations.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. was the sole Democrat to vote “yes.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, was a “no,” but voted “present” as a courtesy to Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., who was attending his daughter’s wedding in Montana.

Democrats reacted to the vote by urging supporters to turn out to the polls in November for the midterms.

“The American people are raising their voices to a deafening roar today. We will not stop marching, we will not stop fighting, and we will vote on Election Day for leaders who share our values.” Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez said in a statement.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnnell, R-Ky., brushed off criticism from Democrats and said it was "a good day for America and an important day for the Senate."

"We stood up for the presumption of innocence, we refused to be intimidated by the mob of people coming after Republican members at their homes and hallways," he said.

COMMENT:  The president is on a plane heading for a rally in Kansas tonight.  He will undoubtedly talk about the Senate vote. 

Reuters reports:  "Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the constitutional oath and retired Justice Anthony Kennedy, who Kavanaugh is replacing, will administer the judicial oath in a private ceremony."

I'm surprised by that.  I thought there'd be something public.  Maybe a private ceremony is better, considering all the tempers out there.  I've seen no confirmation of the Reuters report.

October 6, 2018       Permalink

BULLETIN – AT 4:30 P.M. ET:  SENATE CONFIRMS KAVANAUGH IN 50-48 VOTE.  NATION SURVIVES.  NUCLEAR WEAPONS NOT USED.  PSYCHIATRIC CENTERS IN LARGE URBAN CENTERS JAMMED.

COUNTDOWN – AT 1:25 P.M. ET:  The confirmation vote on Judge Kavanaugh will take place between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. ET today.

The demonstrators are already massing in Washington, determined to save the Republic from a qualified judge.  There are no hints as to when Kavanaugh will be sworn in, assuming the confirmation vote goes as planned. 

While it's still possible for someone to defect and wreck the vote, it's unlikely.  Such a betrayal would be a career ender. 

The jerks, of course, are coming out of the woodwork.  Leading ultra-progressive Democrats are pledging to try to impeach Kavanaugh if they win a House majority next month.  Republicans should welcome that.  As they say in politics, if your opponent is committing suicide, don't get in his way.

I do worry about the safety of Susan Collins.  She is getting plenty of security today, but the ultras are out to get her.  She's up for re-election in Maine next year, and you may be sure that George Soros and his little helpers will pour zillions into an attempt to defeat her.  I think she'll win easily.

So we await the vote.  Then I want to see a special swearing-in.

October 6,  2018     Permalink

OCTOBER 5,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

ALMOST HOME – Unless there's a serious surprise, Brett Kavanaugh should be confirmed as an associate justice of the Supreme Court late Saturday, October 6th.  But a surprise can happen, including some last-minute procedural or legal gimmick, or the Dems finding a judge in Hawaii to rule that conservatism is unconstitutional.  I won't rest until the judge is sworn in.

COLLINS – Susan Collins, never regarded as a Senate great, achieved special status, not only with her decision to back Judge Kavanaugh, but with her brilliant speech explaining her reasoning.  That is what advice and consent is about.  Mitch McConnell said, correctly, that it was one of the best speeches he's ever heard in the Senate.  Collins is now under vicious attack from the hard left, with Obama national-security hack Susan Rice volunteering to run against her next year in Maine.  I didn't know Rice lived in Maine, but details don't matter.  Signs are already appearing calling Collins a "rape apologist."

HE'S STILL THERE? – Dan Rather has announced that his wife is outraged and deeply upset by the prospect of a Justice Kavanaugh.  For those of you who care, letters of comfort can be written. 

DISGRACEFUL – In a last-minute ploy, the American Bar Association informed the Senate that it is reopening its inquiry into Judge Kavanaugh's suitability for the Supreme Court, based on questions of temperament.  The ABA, known as a very liberal organization, had given Kavanaugh its highest rating.  The inquiry will not be completed before the confirmation vote, so it seems ridiculous.  I get the feeling that the ABA is trying to set a precedent allowing it to pass judgment on a sitting Supreme Court justice.  This will only diminish the ABA. 

TARGETED? – As of now, Democrat Joe Manchin of heavily pro-Trump West Virginia, will be the only Democrat voting for Judge Kavanaugh.  It won't hurt him in West Virginia, but his party may attempt to destroy him in the Senate.  There have been hints in the past that Manchin will switch to the GOP – he's sometimes called Trump's Democrat – and it's conceivable.   An office is available, with a coffee maker.  A food taster is on call.  Manchin is up for re-election as a Democrat next month, but he could make the switch next session.

MITCH – The mainstream media hasn't focused on him, but Mitch McConnell has handled the Kavanaugh confirmation with ability and strength.  He emerges as a distinguished majority leader.  We need to give him more Senate seats so he can lead the Senate to more victories.

We await the formal vote.

October 5,  2018     Permalink

BULLETIN – AT 4:25 P.M. ET:  DEMOCRATIC SENATOR JOE MANCHIN OF WEST VIRGINIA HAS ANNOUNCED HE WILL VOTE "YES" TO CONFIRM JUDGE KAVANAUGH. 

BULLETIN – AT 3:58 P.M.ET:    REPUBLICAN SENATOR SUSAN COLLINS OF MAINE HAS JUST ANNOUNCED SHE WILL VOTE IN FAVOR OF JUDGE KAVANAUGH'S CONFIRMATION.  KAVANAUGH NOW APPEARS TO HAVE ANOUGH SUPPORT TO BE CONFIRMED TOMORROW NIGHT BY ONE OR TWO VOTES.  EARLIER, REPUBLICAN SENATOR JEFF FLAKE OF ARIZONA SAID HE WOULD VOTE "YES" UNLESS SOMETHING EXPLOSIVE HAPPENED.  MANCHIN OF WEST VIRGINIA HAS YET TO DECLARE.  STAND BY.  NOTHING IS CERTAIN UNTIL THE VOTE IS ACTUALLY TAKEN.

KAV FIRES UP GOP – AT 12:51 P.M. ET:  The Kavanaugh election?  Well, it may just be happening.  From Axios:   

Top Republicans tell Axios that they're seeing a surprising and widespread surge in GOP voter enthusiasm, powered largely by support for Brett Kavanaugh and his Supreme Court nomination.

What they're saying: "The Kavanaugh debate has dropped a political grenade into the middle of an electorate that had been largely locked in Democrats' favor for the past six months," said Josh Holmes, a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

• Pointing to Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee, Holmes added: "[P]rivate polling shows the enthusiasm shift is ... unmistakable in the red states that will determine control of the Senate."

In North Dakota, one of the top races, a Fox News poll yesterday showed Republican challenger Kevin Cramer leading Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) by 12 points (53%-41%) — up from four points last month.

• "ND now appears out of reach entirely for Democrats," Holmes said.
Another stark example:

• Missouri Rising Action, a super PAC backing Republican Josh Hawley, yesterday got back numbers from pollster Jim McLaughlin showing Hawley leading Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) by 52-44.

• That's a huge swing from the previous poll, in June, which had McCaskill leading Hawley 46-42.

Across the critical midterm states, Republicans point to a major mood swing among voters — what one top operative called a "tidal shift."

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released yesterday found that the "wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared," NPR reported.

• "In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were 'very important.' Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie."

• Republican pollster Glen Bolger, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, agreed that Democrats' enthusiasm advantage dissipated since the Kavanaugh-Ford hearing. Before that, he said, GOP lassitude was "very scary."

Caution: This doesn't mean GOP problems are solved. They still have a huge problem with independent voters.

• But GOP pollsters and strategists like Bolger are breathing slightly easier because they are at least more confident now that the Republican base wants to turn out and vote in the midterms.

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said on a conference call with some major donors yesterday that fresh party polling showed the Kavanaugh fight had awakened Republican voters in some key House districts.

COMMENT:  As they say, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. The key is turnout.  The president, as motivator-in-chief, must get his base out, then add to it.  With turnout will come victory, and the president poised for 2020. 

October 5, 2018       Permalink

TRUMP HITS 51% – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  The president continues his rise in the Rasmussen daily tracker.  From Rasmussen: 

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% who Strongly Approve of the president is performing and 39% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -1.

COMMENT:  It's been a steady rise this week.  There are no guarantees for the future, and other polls have the president lower.  However, the wind seems to be at his back, and voter resentment over the treatment of Judge Kavanaugh is plainly helping him. 

I expect the president to accelerate his campaigning.  He undoubtedly sees a major opening for the GOP to limit losses in this midterm, and possibly increase seats in the Senate.

October 5,  2018     Permalink

BULLETIN:  AT 10:55 A.M. ET:  The Senate divides 51-49 to end debate and move the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to a final vote.  However, Lisa Murkowski, the semi-Republican from Alaska, voted no.  She is probably lost.  That leaves three of the "holdout" senators – Collins, Flake and Manchin, all of whom voted aye to advance to a vote.  That does not guarantee they will vote to confirm the nominee tomorrow night, when the confirmation vote is held.  SUSAN COLLINS WILL ANNOUNCE HER VOTE AT 3 P.M. TODAY.  If she goes with Kavanaugh, we have a good shot at confirmation.  If she announces a "no" vote, I don't see how the judge can be confirmed.  Stand by.

BULLETIN:  Murkowski votes against moving forward with Kavanaugh's nomination.  Collins, Flake and Manchin vote aye.  Stand by.

CLERK IS CALLING THE ROLL RIGHT NOW.  TUNE INTO FOX.

STAND BY:   It's 10:22 A.M. ET.  The cloture vote in the US Senate is scheduled for only minutes away.  As we've noted, if cloture passes the Senate will vote, up or down, on Judge Kavanaugh late tomorrow.  Some believe that the cloture vote will predict the final vote, but I'd be awfully careful about that.  This has been a very unusual confirmation process, and the four holdouts – Collins, Murkowski, Flake, and Manchin, are notoriously independent.